Tropical Storm THIRTYFIVE Advisory 12月28日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
495 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, ILL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. DUE TO THE LACK OF
ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE POORLY-DEFINED NATURE OF THE
LLCC, THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TD
35W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. TD
35W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS
AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING EEMI, JGSI, AVNI AND AEMI) SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, HOWEVER, EGRI AND ECMI NOW INDICATE DISSIPATION BY TAU 48 AS
THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. NVGI AND AFUI REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE WITH A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK IN THE EARLY TAUS. DUE TO THE 270NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72 AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DISSIPATION PLUS POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH
A WEAK LOW PRESSURES AREA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
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