Tropical Storm MAN-YI Advisory 11月27日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (MAN-YI)
WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 261244Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SWATH OF 25-29
KT WIND BARBS TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC, CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) AND ABOVE THE
KNES ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27-28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SSTS), AND OUTFLOW LIMITED BY TD
34W APPROACHING THE MIDLATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL JET, THUS LEAVING TD 34W
UNABLE TO SUPPORT ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION. TD 34W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 34W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STR AXIS THROUGH
TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 30 KNOTS TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND SOME MESOSCALE
MODELS PREDICT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36, WHEN TD 34W WILL
HAVE COMPLETED ETT AND WILL HAVE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EXCELLENT CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT AND FAIR
ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT, LENDING TO OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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