Tropical Storm MAN-YI Advisory 11月25日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 667 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS COME TO A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE BUT
HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION, ALBEIT RAIN BANDS TO THE
NORTH NOW APPEAR TO ELONGATE POLEWARD WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS LINED UP AHEAD OF A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE
1609Z ATMS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS TO T5.0/90KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 28-29
CELSIUS ARE STILL CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY MAN-YI IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD
AS THE STR BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL BE
CROSS-TRACK WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES, GREATLY EXACERBATING THE VWS.
THIS, IN ADDITION TO COLD DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE NORTH, WILL
CAUSE GRADUAL THEN RAPID DECAY LEADING TO EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU
72, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE
TRACK PROGRESSION, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE TURNS, SPANNING OVER 300 NM BY TAU 72,
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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