Tropical Storm USAGI Advisory 11月25日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 33W (USAGI) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO
CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ELONGATING
AND COLLAPSING RAIN BANDS AS THE SYSTEM BEGAN TO INTERACT WITH THE
VIETNAMESE COAST. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS SOLID AND
INTACT, OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON NOTCH FEATURES IN THE 241753Z
ATMS AND 241358Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5/55KTS TO
T5.0/90KTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY USAGI IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS AND DESCENDS TO A SHALLOWER STEERING LAYER OF THE STR, MAKING
LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH, AROUND TAU 18. AFTERWARD,
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL CAUSE A RAPID DECAY, LEADING
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48 OVER SOUTHERN CAMBODIA. THE REMNANTS OF TY
33W WILL EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND AFTER TAU 48 AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO POOR
AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS.//
NNNN
NNNN