Tropical Storm TORAJI Advisory 11月20日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER TOP AND OCCLUDING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND
SUPPORTED BY A 200652Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL NOTCH FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF
T2.2 (32 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH A FORMATIVE POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TD TORAJI IS
TRACKING SOUTH-WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING SINCE RESTARTING
WARNING
S FOR TD 32W THUS ESTABLISHING THE FORECAST REASONING
   B. TD 32W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. THE
RIDGE EXTENSION BREAKS OFF AROUND TAU 12 AND FORMS A SECOND ANTI-
CYCLONE IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE SHIFT IN PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TD TORAJI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL
MAYLAY PENINSULA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, EXITING INTO THE BAY OF
BENGAL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
GULF OF THAILAND WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO
30 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL PREVENT
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND. THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE MALACCA STRAIT WITH AN INTENSITY OF
AROUND 30 KNOTS WHERE HIGH VWS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 25 KNOTS
WHICH IS BELOW BASIN WARNING CRITERIA. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT REFORMS, MANY MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS WERE UNAVAILABLE
CAUSING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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