Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory 12月22日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 32//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM
NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER 100 NM WEST OF A
RAGGED, FULLY EXPOSED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T1.5. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND VERY WEAK DIFFLUENCE. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD
32W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IN-STREAM WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 32W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL BARELY MAINTAIN 25
KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12 MAINLY DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE WIND SURGE
EVENT BUT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 24, MORE THAN LIKELY,
SOONER. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INITIALLY BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREADING AFTER TAU 24, AN INDICATION
OF A VERY WEAK VORTEX. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
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