Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory 12月20日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 424 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EIR LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.0 TO T2.8. UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL
DIFFLUENCE. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29
CELSIUS. TS 32W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND IN-STREAM WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS KAI-TAK IS FORECAST TO STAY ON THE SAME TRACK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF ITS LIFESPAN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24 UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW WEAKENS AND EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HINDERS DEVELOPMENT, DISSIPATING BY TAU 72 OR
POSSIBLY SOONER, AS IT MAKES LANDFALL IN MALAYSIA, JUST SOUTH OF THE
THAI BORDER. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC
MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS HEDGED JUST SOUTH OF CONW TO OFFSET NAVGEM,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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