Tropical Storm YUTU Advisory 11月2日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (YUTU) WARNING
NR 46//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
COLLAPSE AND BECOME DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A BROAD, RAGGED,
AND POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CURRENT STORM MOTION AND
THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS, BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATE TRENDS THAT REFLECT THE
RAPID WEAKENING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS NOW IN
HIGH (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT LIMITED OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE. ALONG TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE AT 26
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS NOW BEING AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BUT
STILL GENERALLY STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 31W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
HONG KONG BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECAY MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG
VWS AND COOL SSTS, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER.
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS GREATLY SPREAD OUT, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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