Tropical Storm PHANFONE Advisory 12月26日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (PHANFONE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 30W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 143 NM SOUTHWEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS PHANOFONE HAS
LOST ITS EYE AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED UP. CURVED
BANDING LEADING TOWARD THE CENTER REMAINS TIGHT, HOWEVER. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON THE
DISSOLVED EYE AND THE TIGHT CURVED BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
85KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY TRENDS FROM PGTW AND SATCON AND
REFLECTS THE WEAKENING. ANALYSES INDICATE A DETERIORATING
ENVIRONMENT WITH DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, COOLING SSTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA (SCS), AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVOLVING COLD
SURGE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 30W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK OVER THE SCS. THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
TO 30KTS BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE THE RAPID WEAKENING WITH TY 30W DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. DUE
TO THE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VERTICAL HEIGHT, TYPHOON PHANFONE WILL
TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER A LOW REFLECTION OF THE STR.
NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE WIDELY TO 300NM BY TAU 96, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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