Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory 10月3日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.  THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 16 NM
EYE IN EIR IMAGERY. A 021803Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS STY
30W STILL HAS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AND IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION AS THE OUTER EYEWALL STARVES THE INNER EYEWALL OF INFLOW.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS) AND THE KNES AND RJTD
ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS), AS WELL AS A 021654Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
137 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STY 30W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A TUTT CELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS ALSO ENHANCING OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. STY 30W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BEYOND TAU 12, STY 30W
WILL TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS AT OR BELOW 26C, WHICH ARE A RESULT OF
UPWELLING PRODUCED BY TY TRAMI WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA SEVERAL
DAYS AGO. STY 30W WILL ALSO LOSE ITS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH
RESPECT TO THE TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH,
DECREASING OUTFLOW IN THE SHORT TERM. THE DIMINISHED OUTFLOW AND
COOLER SSTS WILL CAUSE STY 30W TO WEAKEN TO 75 KTS BY TAU 48.
HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS AS THE NEW
PRIMARY EYEWALL CONTRACTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF 127 NM. HOWEVER, MODEL
TRACKERS DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48 AND HAVE A SPREAD OF 354 NM BY TAU 72.
NAVGEM REMAINS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER TO THE WEST COMPARED WITH THE
REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. HWRF AND COAMPS-GFS ARE THE EASTERN
OUTLIERS AND PREDICT A TIGHTER RECURVE AND SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION
AS STY 30W ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR BUT
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 30W WILL BE ROUNDING THE AXIS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR AND WILL START ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST. BY
THIS TIME, STY 30W WILL HAVE MOVED OVER EVEN COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, THE OUTFLOW FROM STY
30W WILL ALSO TAP INTO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH WILL
SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, AND SLOW THE WEAKENING RATE. BETWEEN
TAU 72 AND 96, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS KOREAN
PENINSULA WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING, THOUGH STY 30W IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATER. KONG-REY WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 96 AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
STY 30W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 72, BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED, WITH A SPREAD OF 1000
NM AT TAU 120. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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