Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory 10月2日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SOLID RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 15 NM ROUND EYE IN THE EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (135 KTS)
FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES, AND A 011036Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 144
KTS. LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH HAVE ALLOWED
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 011201Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
BETWEEN 30-32 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO ITS NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. STY 30W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM TO 140 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTER
TAU 24, THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND
NO LONGER BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW, AND THUS
STY 30W WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, WITH 95 NM OF SPREAD BY TAU 48,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE STR
AXIS, TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120, ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL
MODELS VARY GREATLY IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THE RECURVE. NAVGEM IS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER AND BRUSHES THE
COAST OF CHINA AT TAU 120 BEFORE RECURVING. ECMWF AND JGSM ARE ALSO
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, TAKING LONGER TO COMPLETE THE
RECURVE. TWRF, HWRF, GALWEM, COAMPS-GFS, AND GFS ARE TO THE EAST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREDICT A TIGHTER RECURVE. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AROUND TAU 96, STY 30W WILL
MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS BELOW 26C, WHILE A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
OVER MANCHURIA, ALLOWING STY 30W TO TAP INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND AGAIN DEVELOP A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE
ENHANCED OUTFLOW WILL SLOW THE WEAKENING TREND DESPITE THE COOLER
SSTS AND HIGHER VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PROVIDING AN
OTHERWISE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AT TAU 120, AS STY 30W
ACCELERATES POLEWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, IT
WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD OF 695 NM BY TAU 120, CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. //
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