Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory 10月1日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 816 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN BANDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT, HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS BEING OBSCURED BY DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF A PINHOLE EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION TO
ACCOUNT FOR A MINOR TILT. THIS POSITION LINED UP WELL WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 301642Z ATMS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90 KNOTS
FROM ALL 3 REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE RECENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI). UPPER AND LOW LEVEL ANALYSES INDICATE THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED RI TO A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS (SUPER TYPHOON) BY TAU 36.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MINOR SPREADING IN THE ENVELOPE, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY KONG-REY 30W WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD, PASSING
APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF OKINAWA NEAR TAU 108. HIGH VWS AND
REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 75 KTS BY TAU 120.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CTCX AS THE DISTANT
OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE THAT SPREADS OUT TO
OVER 350 NM BY TAU 120. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST
LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY SHARP CTCX RECURVATURE
TOWARD JAPAN.//
NNNN
NNNN