Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory 12月5日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR
037//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD TURNING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER, THE BROAD NATURE DOES NOT LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. ADDITIONALLY, A 041846Z GPM 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
PARTIAL PASS OF THE SYSTEM WITH BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE 35 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND FALLS BETWEEN THE PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) AND A 041057Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 41 KTS. WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
MARGINAL (26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
TS 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS CENTERED OVER ASIA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STR, TS 29W SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
EQUATORWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT BECOMES CAUGHT IN STRONG, COLD
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW AROUND THE STR. AS THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS PERSIST, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION
AROUND TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE UKMET
ENSEMBLE REMAINS AS AN OUTLIER TO THE EAST.//
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