Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory 12月3日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED WITH A 25-NM
OBLONG EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. TY 29W IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE PHILIPPINES, 21 NM
WEST OF LEGASPI. LEGASPI (98444) REPORTED A MSLP OF 965 MB
OBSERVATION AT 021700Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105
KNOTS BASED ON SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT PASSES OVER THE PHILIPPINE
ARCHIPELAGO. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION ARE PARTIALLY
NEGATING A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MILD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-27
DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY KAMMURI IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 29W SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TY 29W SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS; HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH DUE TO ITS TRACK OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE INLAND SEAS. AFTER TAU 48, TY 29W WILL
ENCOUNTER STRONG, COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS (25-30 KNOTS). NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 90 NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND
AFUM, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AS THE SYSTEM HITS THE NORTHEAST
SURGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
ACCELERATES WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW, AND IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER
PORTION JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO ALONG TRACK SPREAD AND ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN TIMING.//
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