Tropical Storm DAMREY Advisory 11月4日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA
NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM
WITH DEEP CONVECTION. A 031800Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWS A NOTCH FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA,
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A VERY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BY
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. TY 28W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. TY DAMREY WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH COASTAL VIETNAM AND WILL WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY WITH ADDITIONAL LAND INTERACTION. TY 28W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VIETNAM AROUND TAU 6. AFTER LANDFALL, THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF THE INDO-CHINA PENINSULA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS
IT TRACKS WESTWARD. TY DAMREY WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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