Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Advisory 11月14日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI)
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING 131653Z AMSR2 IMAGERY, WHICH
SHOWS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY OF
30
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE AGENCY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TD 27W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
CIRCULATION CONSISTENT WITH STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH AN EXPECTED PASSAGE OVER LUZON.
   B. TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTARD FOLLOWING THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE FLOW TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE THROUGH
TAU 72. FORWARD TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AFTER TAU 24 AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND THE STEERING
FLOW WEAKENS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE REMAINS FAVORABLE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXES SLIGHTLY
AND ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH (29-30C).
CONSOLIDATION OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REQUIRE SOME
TIME, AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST
SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72. HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERNMOST OUTLIERS, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE
TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH OF
TD 27W, STEERING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO AND ACROSS THE ISLAND OF
LUZON. PASSAGE OVER LAND WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. THE GALWEM
AND UKMET MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK POLEWARD TO THE
EAST OF LUZON, FARTHER INTO THE DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH, DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
ALL OTHER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE BUILDING RIDGE AND
WESTWARD MOTION SCENARIO, CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
BASED ON NOTED MODEL SPREAD AND DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
SCENARIO, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
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