MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (BARIJAT) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (BARIJAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM
EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 121606Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAKLY CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH A SHIP OBSERVATION NEAR 20.3N 113.3E, 65NM ESE OF THE
CENTER, REPORTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 25 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THESE
OBSERVATIONS, BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35
KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TS 27W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS BARIJAT WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH, CROSSING THE LEIZHOU
PENINSULA NEAR TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK BRIEFLY
OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN AND WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM BY
TAU 24 WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36. TS 27W MAY INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24, HOWEVER, MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS INCLUDING WEAK DIFFLUENCE, LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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