Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Advisory 11月17日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI)
WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP BUT FRAGMENTED RAIN
BANDS FEEDING INTO A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY
EXPOSED LLC AND TRACING THE LOW CLOUD ELEMENTS INTO THE OBSCURED
AREA UNDER THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES, INCLUDING A T2.5/35KTS FROM RJTD AND A T3.5/55KTS FROM
PGTW. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15-20KT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOL/DRY
NORTHERLY WIND SURGE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA OFFSET BY A VIGOROUS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS KALMAEGI WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD UP TO TAU 24 UNDER THE
STR TO THE EAST. AFTERWARD, ANOTHER STR TO THE WEST WILL BUILD,
REORIENT NORTHWARD, AND GRADUALLY STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON NEAR
APARRI BY TAU 36, DRAG ACROSS THE RUGGED INTERIOR BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR VIGAN JUST BEFORE TAU 48. THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK
OF 65KTS BY TAU 24 BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, LAND
INTERACTION, AND A MORE VIGOROUS COLD/DRY NORTHERLY SURGE IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL RESULT IN RAPID DECAY LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL
SPREADING, LEADING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN