MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LIMITED AREA OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 181341Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH EVIDENCE OF FORMATIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI AGENCY POSITION FIXES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AND AREA OF WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TD 26W HAS A WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W. B. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, TRANSIT ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, AND TRACK OUT INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER LAND. AROUND TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TYPHOON 25W (LAN), EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY TY 25W BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN