Tropical Storm MEARI Advisory 11月7日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MEARI) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM EAST OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING NORTHWARD DUE TO STRONG
(40-60 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
061734Z SSMI 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED,
BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS. VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. TY 26W IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY MEARI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR.
TY 26W IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES. THE TYPHOON WILL GAIN
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 18 AS A STRONG COLD-
CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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