Tropical Storm MANGKHUT Advisory 9月14日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING
NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES STY 26W IS REINTENSIFYING AFTER COMPLETING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A 33NM EYE, AND
A DISTINCT BANDING FEATURE. A 131516Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN
INTENSE, SYMMETRIC EYEWALL AND EXCELLENT SPIRAL BANDING. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 150 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T7.0 (140 KNOTS) TO T7.0 (155
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
TO THE EAST, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SST (29-
30C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE VERY FAVORABLE. STY 26W
IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
 3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT
ASCAT IMAGE.
    B. STY 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 WITH
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON NEAR TAU 24. STY 26W
WILL MAINTAIN STY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, STY 26W WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF
LUZON, RE-EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) NEAR TAU 36 NEAR
120 KNOTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK WITH
A TIGHT GROUPING OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 72
(MODEL SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS ONLY 65NM).
   C. AFTER TAU 72, STY MANGKHUT WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SCS JUST SOUTH OF HONG
KONG MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 120.
THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN