Tropical Storm NAKRI Advisory 11月10日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (NAKRI) WARNING NR
017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED
BY A 091142Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
IS MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE WITH FAIR WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR VECTOR IS IN PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION AND SOMEWHAT
MITIGATING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF THE VWS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM AT 28-29 CELSIUS. TS 25W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED
USING A 091424Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS.
   B. IN THE NEAR-TERM, TS 25W WILL CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
THROUGH TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS CONTINUED
MODERATE VWS AND FAIR UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PRECLUDE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
TS 25W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN VIETNAM BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 AND BEGIN
WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS RUGGED TERRAIN COUPLED
WITH SUSTAINED MODERATE VWS. TS 25W WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER TAU
48 AND WILL REMAIN ON THAT COURSE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER LAND BY TAU
72. OVERALL, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. FOLLOWING TAU 36, ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD INCREASES DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF MAKING LANDFALL AND
OVERALL STORM MOTION. A FEW OUTLYING MODELS (ECMWF AND UKMET) PRESENT AN
ALTERNATE SOLUTION WHERE THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING
LANDFALL AND RE-ENTERS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AT THIS TIME, THE
OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
FOLLOWING THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SOLUTION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
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