MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 02// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED UPON THE 151719Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE WARM (30 DEGREES C). THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) RE-ORIENTS TOWARD THE EAST. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 72, TD 25W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A 95 KNOT SYSTEM. C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 25W WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. GIVEN WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. UNTIL TD 25W BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN