Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory 10月24日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM SOUTH OF CHICHI
JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN
ELONGATING CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). A 231631Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS, PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS IN LINE WITH
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING 5.0-5.5
(90-102 KTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 103 KTS. MODERATE (15-20 KT)
VWS IS OFFSETTING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINAL. TY
22W IS ROUNDING THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED
BASED ON ANALYSIS OF RECENT ASCAT DATA.
   B. BY TAU 12, TY 22W WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE STR AXIS AND BEGUN
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. VWS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD NEGATIVELY IMPACTING 22W, REACHING 40 KTS BY TAU
24 AND 65 KTS BY TAU 48. INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY TO
95 KTS AT TAU 12, THEN BEGIN RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS THE VWS INCREASES
AND SSTS DECREASE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AT TAU 24 AS IT STARTS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET AND
WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SPREAD STEADILY INCREASES
AFTERWARD AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ETT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
HEDGED JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
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