Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory 10月20日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI)
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTENING RAIN
BANDS AND A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AS EVIDENCED BY COOLING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY
EXTRAPOLATING FROM A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 1520Z AMSR2 37GHZ
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5/35KTS TO T3.5/55KTS AND
REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SST
VALUES OF 29-30C REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STR AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 100KTS, ENHANCED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AFTER IT CRESTS THE STR, PEAKING AT 105KTS
BEFORE IT STARTS WEAKENING MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND BY TAU
120 SHOULD BE DOWN TO 95KTS. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE TIGHTENED EVEN
MORE WITH MINIMAL SPREADING TO 130NM AT TAU 72 AND 140NM AT TAU 120,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN