Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory 10月28日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TRANSIENT EYE FEATURE AND SPIRAL
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT
IN A 271820Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED BELOW MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS, PGTW) AND
T5.5 (102 KTS, RJTD) AND ABOVE AN ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.2 (70 KTS) AND A 271418Z CIMSS SATELLITE
CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 97 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT THAT ARE OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (25-
30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 21W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY MOLAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TOWARDS THE COAST OF CENTRAL VIETNAM, IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE
TO CONTINUED HIGH (25 KTS+) VWS. TY MOLAVE WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM BEFORE TAU 12 AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO
CONTINUED HIGH VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. THIS
WEAKENING TREND WILL RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 65 KTS AT TAU 12 THAT
WILL FURTHER DROP TO 35 KTS AT TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS DISSIPATION OVER
LAND. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND.
NUMERICAL MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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