Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory 10月26日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 21W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 35 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 40 KNOTS AT 24/18Z TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE. THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT IN A 251840Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING AND
A COMPACT EYEWALL SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KTS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0-4.5 (65-77 KNOTS) AND A
251740Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 4.6 (79 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TY 21W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 21W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER PANAY ISLAND, TY 21W SHOULD RE-
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE 25/12Z
COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATES HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A PEAK OF 90-100
KNOTS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF 105 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, TY 21W WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN VIETNAM WITH LANDFALL
EXPECTED NEAR TAU 60. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER
TAU 60 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 90NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 60.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, TY 21W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH DISSIPATION OVER LAND
EXPECTED BY TAU 96. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM (A SOUTHERLY
OUTLIER), NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 96, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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