Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory 10月25日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
242011Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE; THE 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH TYPICALLY SIGNALS RAPID INTENSIFICATION ONSET. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER
END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0-2.5 (30-35
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW-MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES (30C) AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TS 21W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN EXTENSION TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING AS IT TRACKS
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PERSIST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY TO 60 KTS PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES NEAR TAU 18. AS IT
TRANSITS OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY
(OR POSSIBLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY) BEFORE THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80
KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72 WITH A 90NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS
NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES CENTRAL VIETNAM WITH A 135NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS NEAR THE
LANDFALL POINT. TS 21W WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND
BEGINS INTERACTING WITH LAND, AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS INLAND, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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