Tropical Storm SAUDEL Advisory 10月25日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR
024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST DUE TO
PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 241930Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT
DATA, HEDGED SLIGHTLY UNDER PGTW/RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 3.5 (55 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS, FAIR EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SST VALUES. TS 19W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 24.
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS
IT TRANSITS ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY
TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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