Tropical Storm MITAG Advisory 10月3日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR
023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 57 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY ISOLATED TO THE NORTHEAST, INDICATING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) HAS COMMENCED. THE EIR LOOP, RADAR
IMAGERY, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PROVIDE FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHERE MOST OF THE STRONG WIND
SPEED REPORTS ARE FROM STATIONS THAT ARE OVER 60 NM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MID-LATITUDE JET IS PROVIDING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL;
HOWEVER, STRONG (30-40 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE. TS 19W IS TRACKING INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) THAT HAS GUIDED IT SINCE FORMATION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TS 19W WILL SHIFT ONTO A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. ETT SHOULD COMPLETE AROUND TAU 24. THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION UNTIL IT PASSES OVER JAPAN INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD WILL
BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ETT. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NAVGEM AND GFS TO THE SOUTH AND JGSM TO THE NORTH, TRACK AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS IS STRONG. BASED ON THE OUTLIERS, CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ASSESSED AS FAIR.//
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