Tropical Storm LINGLING Advisory 9月4日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 257 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH A TEMPORARY OBSCURATION OF THE
RAGGED EYE. A 031743Z 88GHZ ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE, AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS,
GIVEN THE TEMPORARY WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS IN EIR IMAGERY AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T4.0/4.5 FROM PGTW AND T4.5/4.5 FROM RJTD. TY 15W
REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, RESTRICTED ONLY TO THE WEST. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 15W HAS TEMPORARILY JOGGED TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST, IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. ASIDE FROM THE TEMPORARY INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH EASTERN CHINA, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR TY 15W THROUGH TAU
72. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 100 KNOTS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT TY 15W WILL TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEAR
TERM, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THE
STR BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
   C. IN THE LONG TERM, TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWARD WHILE BEING STEERED BY THE STR TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 48,
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE TY 15W TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA, BEGINNING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BOTH A
LARGE ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE, WITH UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FORECASTED TURNS ALONG THE TRACK.//
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