Tropical Storm HAISHEN Advisory 9月7日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)
WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 31 NM WEST OF SASEBO,
JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING
CLOUD TOPS AND A RAGGED AND PARTLY-OBSCURED 7-NM EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE
EIR AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS BASED
ON AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5/5.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD
THAT REFLECT THE WEAKENING TREND. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME HOSTILE AS
THE SYSTEM IS NOW ONLY EXPERIENCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HAS DRIFTED
INTO COOLER WATERS (26-27 CELSIUS). FURTHERMORE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS INCREASED TO 20-30 KTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TYPHOON HAISHEN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STR, MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 06 JUST WEST OF
BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, TRACK INLAND, MOMENTARILY EXIT INTO THE SEA OF
JAPAN AFTER TAU 12, THEN INTO NORTH KOREA AND CROSS INTO MANCHURIA
BEFORE TAU 36. THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE ADDITION OF FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KTS BY TAU 36. CONCURRENTLY AT TAU
12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU
24. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AFUM WHICH CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTREME RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER AND DRIVES
THE VORTEX INTO THE STR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK THAT IS LAID LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM.//
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