MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 091751Z ATMS IMAGE AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND METOP-A ASCAT DATA FROM 091202Z INDICATING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS SITUATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WITH PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY. TD 07W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION. THE SYSTEM IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS LIMITED. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AROUND TAU 30. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL, DESPITE PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DUE TO CONTINUED PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, IT WILL WEAKEN DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE EXACT DIRECTION AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN