Tropical Storm SIX Advisory 8月10日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 091813Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE, AND A
091750Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A BYU HIGH RESOLUTION ANALYSIS OF A 091133Z ASCAT PASS, AND
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY CURRENT LOW-LEVEL BANDING STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED
SSMIS IMAGE. TS 06W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE
SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER WARM WATER (29-30C) IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW TOWARD TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST IS
SUPPORTING SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING
AND THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 96 HOURS.
   B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE STR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AS STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CIRCULATION, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DESPITE THE
INCREASING SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
PATTERN IN THE NEAR-TERM SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN INTACT AS
A WEAK TROPICAL STORM OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH TAU 72.
   C.  TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY SUCCUMB TO INCREASING VWS AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96, TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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