Tropical Storm NANMADOL Advisory 7月4日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
TIGHT CLUSTER OF AGENCY FIXES THAT FITS IN THE CIRCULATION FEATURE ON
A COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP FROM KYUSHU, JAPAN, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TS 05W IS NOW ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH AND WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER
COOLER SST (26 TO 25C) THEN DRAG ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF KYUSHU,
SHIKOKU, AND HONSHU. AFTER TAU 24, TS NANMADOL WILL UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT
COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 36. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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