Tropical Storm JANGMI Advisory 8月10日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI)
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 091748Z ATMS
IMAGE AND EARLIER 091319Z METOP-B ASCAT DATA. THE INTENSITY OF 40
KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. TS 05W IS TRACKING RAPIDLY POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH
THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS EVIDENT TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29C). POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TURN GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE STR SOUTH OF KOREA. STORM MOTION WILL ACCELERATE AS THE
SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND
TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INCREASING OUTFLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TS 05W TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT
THE TRANSITION DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE
OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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