Tropical Storm MEGI Advisory 4月11日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (MEGI)
WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.9N 124.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED
SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS AND CENTRAL CONVECTION RESIDING
OVER THE WESTERN SHOAL OF LEYTE ISLAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND A 102002Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS BASED BETWEEN MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CEBU CITY, MAASIN, BORONGAN, AND
CATARMAN. ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS FROM THE RUGGED ISLAND TERRAIN. THE CYCLONE REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) IN THE PHILIPPINE ISLAND CHAIN, AS IT IS
EMBEDDED IN A SHALLOW TROUGH WITH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS TO THE NORTH
AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: QUASI-STATIONARY IN A SHALLOW TROUGH
WITH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS TO THE NORTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO
THE SOUTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: OVER LAND
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD MEGI IS EXPECTED TO TURN CLOCKWISE AND
REMAIN OVER LEYTE, WITH SMALL PERIODS OF BREAKING OUT OVER THE WARM
PHILIPPINE SEA. HOWEVER, BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
PULLED INTO THE LARGER, STRONGER (TS 02W). THE BINARY INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL SUPPRESS ANY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
TD 03W, IN ADDITION, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE RUGGED ISLAND
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUALLY IMPACT AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM THROUGH
TAU 48. THE REMNANT OF TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND GET ABSORBED BY TS 02W DURING THE BINARY
INTERACTION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
MAINTAINING THE VORTEX OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
36HRS BEFORE EJECTING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD TS 02W. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS A WIDESPREAD IN THE INITIAL 36-48HR TRAJECTORIES.
BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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