Tropical Storm THREE Advisory 3月18日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155
NM WEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SMALL, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC IN
THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS). THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(28-29 CELSIUS) SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL DISSIPATING AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DAVAO, PHILIPPINES BY TAU 36. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL COULD CAUSE LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, AND ALTHOUGH TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 36, THERE IS A CHANCE THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION WILL RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. BASED ON THE
SPREAD REACHING 96 NM BY TAU 36, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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