Tropical Storm NURI Advisory 6月14日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (NURI) WARNING
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11  KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DISPLACED 75NM NE FROM ITS ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EIR AND RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30KTS FROM PGTW AND FROM A 131322Z DIRECT ASCAT
PASS. TD NURI CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE
NE AND HAS DRIFTED INTO HIGH (25KT+) VWS THAT IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31C) SST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD NURI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL
OVER THE SE CHINA COAST APPROXIMATELY 125NM WSW OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU
06. HIGH VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS
RAPID DECAY LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, LIKELY SOONER. NUMERICAL
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING UP TO 200NM BY TAU 24 AS
THEY HAVE DIFFICULTY TRACKING A WEAK VORTEX OVER LAND. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID NEAR THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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