Tropical Storm WUTIP Advisory 2月28日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECOUPLED FROM THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AN EXPOSED LLCC
IN THE IR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
PREVIOUS 271219Z ASCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWED A SWATH OF 35-39 KT WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST, DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DECAYING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T4.0 (65 KTS) AND T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 02W IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE (25 TO 40
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
DUE TO BEING SITUATED UNDER THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE JET. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TS 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A SECOND
STR LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. TS 02W WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 25 KNOTS BY TAU
24 AND DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED BY
TAU 36 AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
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