Tropical Storm WUTIP Advisory 3月28日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (WUTIP)
WARNING NR 38//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER EVIDENT IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ADDITIONALLY, A 281159Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED, ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25
KNOTS. TD 02W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER REMAINS FULLY-EXPOSED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, 35 TO 45 KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AS IT
DISSIPATES UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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