MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 35// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AN EXPOSED LLCC IN THE IR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PREVIOUS 271219Z ASCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWED A SWATH OF 35-39 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST, DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DECAYING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) AND T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 02W IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE (25 TO 40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO BEING SITUATED UNDER THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE JET. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A SECOND STR LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 25 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED BY TAU 36 AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN