MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 09// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM SOUTH OF NGULU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH EXTENSIVE CONVECTION BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC EVIDENT IN THE 101821Z 37 GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE, WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29- 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUB TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. DUE TO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND A FORECASTED PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR TS 02W HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. B. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR TOWARD MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36, EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, LAND INTERACTION WILL PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 48 AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE SULU SEA PRIOR TO TAU 72 AT AROUND 60 KNOTS INTENSITY. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 02W WILL CROSS THE SULU SEA, PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO PRINCESA AND TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAME STR. ONCE OUT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER, VARIES IN ALONG TRACK SPEED IN THE LATER TAUS LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST TRACK AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN