Tropical Storm SANBA Advisory 2月10日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
SMALL POCKETS OF ISOLATED FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED OFF OF THE ANIMATED IR LOOP SHOWING MID TO LOW LEVEL
TURNING AND A 091745Z 37 GHZ SSMIS PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND
IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WITH A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TD 02W IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF ONE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND ONE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS AND THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST WEAKENS. AFTER TAU 24, TD 02W WILL ROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE STR AND TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TD 02W MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL
THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE 50 KNOTS. AS THE STORM TRACKS ACROSS
THE PHILIPPINES IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE ENTERING THE SULU SEA
PRIOR TO TAU 96. ONCE OVER THE SULU SEA, THE WARM WATERS WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER TAU 96, TD 02W WILL AGAIN
MAKE LANDFALL OVER PUERTO PRINCESA BEFORE EXITING OUT INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AT 45 KNOTS INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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