Tropical Storm DUJUAN Advisory 2月22日

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING
NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED
DOWNSTREAM FROM A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN
211641Z AMSR2 36 GHZ IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS BASED
ON 211216Z METOP-B AND 211313Z METOP-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES SHOWING
A LIMITED AREA OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, BUT IS
NO LONGER PERSISTING OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS MINIMAL (5-10 KNOTS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS WARM (28-
29C) AND WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ARE UPPER-LEVEL ARE
EVIDENT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. TD 01W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE CURRENT ANALYSIS (211800Z) POSITION LIES NEAR THE
PREVIOUSLY-ANALYZED (211200Z) POSITION, AND WELL TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE 211800Z LOCATION PREDICTED ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, DUE TO A RELOCATION OF LOW LEVEL CENTER ANALYSES BASED ON
NEWLY AVAILABLE SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE,
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AND NO CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. TD 01W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLAND AND CONTINUE TO STEADILY DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES, ALONG-
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DECREASES AND THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS OCCASIONALLY WITH LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SPEED AND DIRECTION OF TD
01W ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CONTINUOUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
TO THE NORTH. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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