Tropical Storm EPSILON Advisory 10月24日

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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6
hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and
recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the
secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The
current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory,
close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has
expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by
recent scatterometer data.

Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster
forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same,
where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward
extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to
the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough
will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the
formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of
the forecast period.  No significant changes were made to the track
forecast.

Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days
and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core
fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest
intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over
a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary
eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official
intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h.
Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilon’s 34- and 50-kt
wind field should continue to expand to the south while it
undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early
Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 35.5N  61.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 37.0N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 38.9N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 41.9N  53.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 45.6N  45.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 50.0N  34.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  26/1800Z 54.0N  24.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake