Tropical Storm NESTOR Advisory 10月19日

ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019
2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  20(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)  10(10)  21(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   1( 1)  14(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)  12(12)  17(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)  20(20)  14(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   1( 1)  25(26)   7(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   1( 1)  31(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   2( 2)  30(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   3( 3)  29(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

KINGS BAY GA   34  X   6( 6)  10(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

WAYCROSS GA    34  X  17(17)  13(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  2   4( 6)   7(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   9( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  1  13(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

THE VILLAGES   34  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ORLANDO FL     34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

VENICE FL      34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

TAMPA FL       34  1   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CEDAR KEY FL   34 10  13(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  2  56(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ST MARKS FL    34  3  61(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

APALACHICOLA   34 60  29(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
APALACHICOLA   50  2  20(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 83   7(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 12  24(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 50  16(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  2   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

DESTIN EXEC AP 34 14   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 58   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 12   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
FORECASTER BRENNAN