Tropical Storm NICHOLAS Advisory 9月15日

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142021
2100 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

BATON ROUGE LA 34  1   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

MORGAN CITY LA 34  1   7( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

ALEXANDRIA LA  34  2   5( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

LAFAYETTE LA   34  5   9(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

NEW IBERIA LA  34  5   9(14)   3(17)   X(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

FORT POLK LA   34  6   4(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

LAKE CHARLES   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

CAMERON LA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

JASPER TX      34  6   3( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

KOUNTZE TX     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

GALVESTON TX   34  5   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34  6   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECASTER STEWART