Tropical Storm FRED Advisory 8月15日

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Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that a broad and elongated
circulation has formed in association with the remnants of Fred, and
that the convection has become more concentrated at the east end of
the elongated center.  However, neither the circulation nor the
convection are organized enough to justify calling the system a
tropical cyclone at this time.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to survey the remnants of Fred this
evening to see how far the re-development has progressed.

The initial motion is a still very uncertain 300/11.  The system is
expected to move northwestward around the western periphery of the
subtropical ridge, with a turn toward the north expected as the
system nears and moves inland along the northern Gulf coast in 48-60
h.  The forecast guidance remains in good agreement on this general
scenario and the new NHC forecast track is close the the consensus
models. However, some adjustments to the track forecast could occur
depending on where the center of Fred re-forms.  Therefore, users
should not concentrate on the details of the forecast track, which
could change quite a bit during the next day or so.

The global models are now in better agreement that the upper-level
trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that has been hindering
the development of Fred will move northward and weaken during the
next 24 h.  They also indicate that Fred is likely to re-form
a well-defined closed circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Sunday morning.  Thus, the intensity forecast now calls for Fred to
regain tropical cyclone status in about 12 h, followed by gradual
strengthening until landfall in a less than ideal upper-level wind
environment.  After landfall, the system should weaken and
dissipate between 96-120 h.  The new NHC intensity forecast follows
the overall trend of the intensity guidance.

Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect,
the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on
the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development.  Watches
could be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight,
and warnings may be required on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the
Gulf of Mexico tonight or on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical
storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially
from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on
Monday.  Watches may be required for a portion of this area
tonight, and warnings may be required on Sunday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 24.0N  84.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...DISTURBANCE
 12H  15/0600Z 25.0N  85.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  15/1800Z 26.6N  87.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 28.0N  87.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 29.4N  88.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 30.9N  88.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  17/1800Z 32.4N  88.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/1800Z 36.0N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven