Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE Advisory 6月22日

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Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Claudette's low-level center passed over or near buoy 44014 (east of
Virginia Beach) around 1400 UTC, and was associated with a sharp
south-to-north wind shift and an estimated pressure of 1004 mb. In
addition, buoy 41001, located in the southeastern quadrant of the
cyclone's circulation, reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 39 kt
at around 1600 UTC. Based on these data, the intensity has been
increased to 40 kt, which is supported by a satellite classification
of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is 060/25 kt. Claudette is expected to
continue in a general east-northeastward direction through tonight
ahead of a deep-layer trough and associated frontal system that is
moving across the eastern United States. By early Tuesday, the
cyclone is forecast move northeastward at a slightly faster forward
speed over the colder waters of the far northwestern Atlantic. The
new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track,
and lies down the center of the tightly packed track model guidance
suite.

Claudette has likely peaked in intensity, and little change in
strength is expected due to the cyclone currently moving over
sub-23-deg-C sea-surface temperatures with even colder water ahead
of the storm. Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical
extratropical low in the 12-24-hour period, but that transition
could occur sooner. The latest official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity
consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 37.5N  72.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 39.5N  67.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 42.8N  62.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/0600Z 46.0N  56.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart